Factors Shaping the Future of China’s Military
This report explores the factors shaping the future of China’s military. Access the original research and our high-level summary for free via MISLNET.COM. The following is our exclusive Report Guide for premium subscribers, breaking down and extracting the key insights per section. Become a member of our Substack community to share your thoughts and get exclusive access to report guides.
Report Guide
Overview of the Report’s Structure
This RAND report provides a comprehensive assessment of the key factors influencing the development of China’s military over the coming decades. The study evaluates demographic trends, economic constraints, recruitment challenges, and modernization efforts. The report is structured as follows:
Demographic Challenges & Population Trends (Pages 1-5)
Economic Pressures on the PLA (Pages 6-9)
Recruitment & Talent Acquisition (Pages 10-14)
Modernization & Technological Upgrades (Pages 15-19)
Strategic Implications for Global Security (Pages 20-24)
1. Demographic Challenges & Population Trends (Pages 1-5)
China’s declining birth rate and aging population pose long-term risks to military sustainability. The one-child policy, revoked in 2015, did little to reverse demographic decline, and new incentives for larger families have had limited success.
🔍 Key Takeaways:
China’s fertility rate has fallen below 1.2 births per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1.